Guaranteed Cappers

This is a play on the BOSTON RED SOX for our MLB Sunday Afternoon Dominator. Boston has lost four straight games and looks to avoid the sweep on Sunday which would put it three games under .500 heading into a big series at Tampa Bay. St. Louis has now won five of its last six games but is still five games under .500 while checking in just 8-11 at home. The offense has struggled all season as the Cardinals are averaging just 3.7 rpg while hitting .228 with those numbers being roughly the same in splits at home and against righty starters. Nick Pivetta returned to the Red Sox rotation last week after missing over a month with an injury. He struggled in Atlanta but bounced back with a solid effort against Tampa Bay where he was one out away from a quality outing. His 3.48 ERA and 1.02 WHIP include two great starts to open the season prior to hitting the IL. Matthew Liberatore counters for the Cardinals and this is not a good situation. He entered the season as a full time reliever but made a couple spot starts and is now back in the rotation because of the injury to Steven Matz. He has a 4.58 ERA in 15 games overall covering 23.7 innings and he has not tossed more than 60 pitches in his two starts which is problematic for the Cardinals whose bullpen ERA is 5.25 over the last seven games. 10* (927) Boston Red Sox

This is a play on the SAN DIEGO PADRES for our MLB Sunday Sweet Spot. The game on Saturday was postponed and the pitching matchup remains the same. Atlanta will be a very popular play tonight coming off a pair of losses where it scored just one run in each defeat. The Braves do not have a good matchup to get the offense back on track and it has actually stumbled going back further as the Braves more than four runs only three times in their last 17 games, averaging only 3.0 rpg over this stretch. The Padres remain a game under .500 as they were coming off getting swept at home by the Rockies so the Game One win was a big one. Bryce Elder has looked good in three of his four starts, allowing two runs or less but his 4.79 ERA is actually better than the underlying metrics as he has posted a career-worst .289 xBA and 47% hard-hit rate and he is not going to overpower anyone. Yu Darvish has been elite and has now gone three straight starts not allowing a run, covering 17 innings. He has improved from last season with a better barrel rate and his xBA is down considerably. He is tough to figure out by opposing bats as he has eight pitches he can go to. 10* (911) San Diego Padres

This is a play on the DENVER NUGGETS for our NBA Round 2 Game of the Year. The Nuggets could not have been more embarrassed in Game six as they trailed by as many as 50 points and lost by 45 as an early 20-0 run sealed it for the Timberwolves early. Denver gets a chance for redemption on its home floor where it lost the first two games of this series but was able to pick up the first home win by any team in this series in Game Five. That was a tough situation for Minnesota and it is the same for Game Seven. Prior to Game Five, the Timberwolves have not had to fly into altitude on short rest yet and that can be a huge disadvantage as the first game here came with six days of rest. They lost that short rest travel game by 15 points and are in a similar spot. Expect Denver to do a better job on the offensive glass to get more second chance opportunities. In the regular season, the Nuggets attempted 80 or fewer shots in only three of 82 games. In the second round, they have been held to 80 or fewer shots in four of the six games which is shocking but the correlation is that they have single-digit offensive rebounds in those four games so it is a simple plan. Here, we play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 off a win by 20 points or more over a division rival, playing a team with a winning record. This situation is 46-18 ATS (71.9 percent) since 1996. 10* (540) Denver Nuggets